NGX Weekly Market Recap (Week Ending Nov 14, 2025)

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) closed a mixed week with a -1.15% slide in the All Share Index (ASI) to 147,115.63, much improved from last week’s -2.74% drop. Market sentiment was balanced, with breadth nearly flat (1.02x) as 52 stocks advanced and 51 declined. While the general direction was slightly negative, pockets of momentum surfaced— most notably within the Insurance sector, which topped the week’s index performance, while industrials lagged considerably. Value and volume traded climbed (+26.44% and +6.97% week on week), but trade count slid by -9.06%. Divergences between YTD and WTD leaders hint at evolving sector rotations, and technical signals show several stocks reaching overbought or oversold conditions. Let’s unpack the week’s key stories:

Market Breadth & Activity Trends

• Breadth: Advancers represented 28.89% of the market, decliners 28.33%, and 41.67% were unchanged—reflecting an almost perfectly balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
• Trade Dynamics:
  • Turnover up by 26.44%: A positive sign of engagement, though the 9.06% drop in number of trades signals more block/institutional action, less retail churning.
  • Volume gainers vs losers: 141 stocks saw higher volumes w/w vs 143 declining—showing increasing intra-stock (not just index-wide) rotation.
  • Three new highs and three new lows: Pockets of strong conviction in both directions; a sign of a developing battleground for leadership among stocks.

Week's Top Gainers

Week's Top Losers

Insights and Predictions

• Turnover Spike but Fewer Trades: The jump in value/volume (+26.44%/6.97%) coupled with a -9.06% drop in trade count signals large institutional blocks driving flows, not retail enthusiasm. Look for follow-through only if participation broadens next week.
• Advancing/Declining Trends: With breadth at 1.02x and nearly equal advancers/decliners, the market is searching for new leadership— sector rotation is likely, watch for breakouts in recent laggards.
• Unusual Volume Stocks: Major activity centered in large caps—ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, ARADEL, and GTCO (see trading summary below). Retail volumes spiked in STERLINGNG, suggestive of speculative rotation or short-term trading plays.
• YTD vs. WTD Movers Trends: Several YTD top gainers (NCR, ACADEMY, CHAMS) reversed this week, hinting at short-term profit-taking and rotation. YTD leaders with high RSI should be watched for mean reversion, or for confirmation of persistent momentum if supported by volume.
• Bullish Momentum (RSI>70/MACD/15DMA>50DMA):
  • NCR: RSI at 95.88 (!) signaling extreme overbought; traders should consider trailing stops or partial profit-taking.
  • STANBIC IBTC ETF 30: Blistering move, RSI 72.83, confirmed by strong MACD and 15DMA far above 50DMA. Momentum may persist, but at risk of short-term pullback due to overbought status.
• Bearish Momentum (RSI<30/MACD/15DMA<50DMA):
  • AUSTIN LAZ: RSI 20.24, MACD negative, and 15DMA trailing 50DMA—candidate for continued selling or a sharp rebound if bargain-hunters step in.
  • TRANSCORP POWER: RSI at 25.76; watch for support at current levels.
• Dividend Yield Cross-check: Several high-dividend stocks (**UNION DICON, LINKASSURE, NAHCO, TRIPPLEG, ROYALEX**) are also showing high volatilities or strong momentum, making them interesting for income and swing traders. However, some of these (e.g. UNION DICON, TRIPPLEG) are underperforming and pose risk that may erode yield benefits.

Indexes Table Analysis

• Standout Sector: Insurance (+6.95%) led by a wide margin, rebounding on renewed speculative and value interest. YTD, it also edges ahead (+48.26%), confirming sectoral leadership.
• Laggard: The Industrial Index fell -6.96%—the worst weekly sector in a year with strong YTD gains (+53.45%). This may indicate sector rotation away from recent winners as investors lock in profits.
• Relative Performers:
  • NGX MERI Value/Bank Value/Div Yield all closed green, highlighting a flight to value, yield, and relatively defensive sectors as volatility returns.
  • NGX Premium and 30 Indexes lost ground, reflecting profit-taking in large-caps and flight to smaller, more value-oriented plays.
• Key Takeaway: Sector rotation is evident—defensives (insurance, banks, value plays) are outperforming cyclicals and prior leaders (industrials, premium large-caps).

2025 YTD – Top Gainers and Losers

2025 WTD – Top Gainers and Losers

• Overlaps: NCR, FTN COCOA, and ACADEMY PRESS are both YTD and WTD leaders, demonstrating both medium-term and immediate momentum—rare and worth monitoring for continued trend.
• Bears: UNION DICON SALT and TRANSPOWER are present as both WTD and YTD losers—trend followers may look for further underperformance, but contrarians may begin probing for reversals.

Market Activity / Trades Summary

Institutional investors dominated by trade value/volume (over 90%) despite making just 8% of trade counts, validating the large block trades observed above. Retail is present in numbers, not in size.

• Pattern Watch: Both retail and institutional are most active in blue-chip financials and telecoms (ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, GTCO), showing where liquidity and focus remain highest for all investor classes.
• STERLINGNG: The top retail volume stock, indicating potential speculative attention from small investors—watch for volatility.
• Volume vs. Value: Institutions dominate by size; retail by activity count—expect institutional flows to dictate direction on most liquid names, but retail can create volatility in smaller issues.
• Investor Guidance: For swing/short-term traders, follow liquidity—track retail darlings for momentum, but anchor trades in blue-chip names supported by institutions.

Actionable Takeaways for Traders

• Opportunities:
  • Momentum remains strong in select YTD and WTD gainers (NCR, STANBICETF30, FTN COCOA) but watch RSI for potential exhaustion—partial profit-taking is wise.
  • Insurance and high-dividend-yielding value stocks could see continued fund flow as investors turn defensive and seek steady returns.
• Cautions:
  • Several top losers (VETGOODS, AUSTINLAZ, TRANSPOWER, UNIONDICON) have RSI below 30 combined with negative MACD and moving average breakdowns—avoid or wait for confirmation of a reversal before entering.
  • Retail favorite STERLINGNG has speculative appeal but could be very volatile—suitable only for nimble traders.
• Rotation Alert: Evidence of profit taking in Industrials and rotation into Insurance, Value, and Dividend Yield plays—use sector ETFs or targeted exposure to ride themes.
• Liquidity Focus: Remain anchored to high-volume, institutionally traded names for core positions; use technical indicators and momentum screens (RSI/MACD/Crossovers) for tactical trades.